The UN’s February 10 deadline for countries to submit their 2035 climate targets and action plans has passed, with a disappointing lack of response from major economies. Only 12 including: UAE, Brazil, USA, Uruguay, Switzerland, UK, New Zealand, Andorra, St Lucia, Ecuador, Singapore and the Marshall Islands have managed to meet the deadline, and among them, just three—Brazil, the US, and the UK—are from the influential G20 group. This failure to act sends a troubling signal about the global commitment to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
While the opportunity to demonstrate climate leadership has been missed, countries still have a chance to strengthen their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) before the next submission deadline in September, ahead of COP30, which will take place in Belem, Brasil. The world is now watching to see whether major economies will rise to the challenge or continue to fall short of expectations.
Since the introduction of NDCs in 2015, these national climate plans have been a key driver of policy action. They are updated every five years to progressively increase ambition. This third round of submissions is particularly crucial, as it represents the last opportunity for governments to set meaningful 2035 targets before 2030—when the window to keep global warming within safe limits will have largely closed.
The failure of most G20 nations to meet the February deadline is especially concerning given the lack of progress on climate finance at COP29. Many of the world’s largest emitters have cited technical issues, economic pressures and political uncertainty as reasons why they have not been able to meet the UN deadline.EU officials said the bloc’s lengthy process for approving new legislation made it almost impossible to meet the deadline. China has not confirmed when it will release its climate plan. Canada, Japan and Indonesia have all released draft versions of their 2035 climate plans, but have yet to submit them to the UN. Canada’s plan has faced criticism for setting an emissions pledge that is less ambitious than what its official climate advisors recommended. Russia has not made any public comments about when it will release its new NDC. Its last major climate update came in 2021, when it pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2060. Australia has indicated it will delay the release of its NDC until after the country’s election in May.
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Developing countries need assurances that high-polluting nations will do their fair share, particularly through emissions reductions and financial support for climate adaptation and mitigation. With COP30 approaching, climate advocates are urging countries to integrate recommendations from the recent Global Stocktake, which identified major gaps in existing targets.
As the September deadline looms, attention will be on G20 nations such as China, Japan, Australia, and EU countries, which have draft plans under consultation. Analysts have welcomed the UK’s ambitious 81% emissions reduction target and are calling on other nations to follow suit. However, history shows that delays in climate action are costly. During the last NDC submission cycle in 2020, only 48 countries submittted their NDCs by the end of the year with many countries missing the deadline and scrambling to update their plans by COP26 in 2021.
With time running out, the world cannot afford another round of weak commitments. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether global climate ambition rises to meet the urgency of the crisis—or whether the biggest polluters will once again delay the action that science and justice demand.
