By Shelley Estcourt, CEO, and Storm Patel, Commercial Director at TASC
Across Africa, the conversation about climate action is no longer just about resilience. It is increasingly about opportunity.
Our continent has some of the world’s greatest potential for high-quality carbon projects that can not only reduce emissions but also deliver significant social, economic and environment benefits for communities.
With the inaugural Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) taking place in Johannesburg next month, there is a clear sense that we stand on the cusp of a turning point in how African carbon markets can develop and scale.
Africa’s potential is widely recognised. The continent’s diverse landscapes – from savannahs and wetlands to vast grasslands – provide fertile ground for nature-based solutions. Just as importantly, Africa has a track record of projects that deliver real and immediate value for people as well as the planet. Clean water initiatives, improved cookstoves, and regenerative agriculture are prime examples of how carbon projects here can cut emissions while creating jobs, improving health, and building resilience.
Yet, despite this potential, Africa currently captures only around 14–16% of the global voluntary carbon market credit supply. The gap between what we contribute today and what we could contribute in the years ahead highlights the scale of the opportunity before us.
According to the Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI), voluntary markets alone could, by 2030, generate as much as $6 billion annually and support 30 million jobs.
A critical driver of this growth is Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. It provides the international framework for how carbon credits can be traded between countries to meet national climate goals.
Read also: Inside the buyer playbook for African carbon credits at CMAS 2025
Importantly, it requires transparency, host country authorisation, and robust monitoring – all factors that build integrity and market trust. Several African nations, including Zambia, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Malawi, are already developing frameworks and bilateral agreements under Article 6, signalling readiness to attract capital and scale projects.
With significant private sector funding waiting to be deployed, there is a clear first mover advantage. Governments that move quickly to establish credible frameworks will be best placed to secure investment and channel it into high-quality projects that deliver lasting benefits both environmentally and economically.
At TASC, we witness daily how high-integrity climate action transforms livelihoods. Our communal GRASS initiative in South Africa is restoring hundreds of thousands of hectares of degraded grassland and savannah through regenerative management, with an ambition to scale to over one million ha. Beyond generating carbon credits, the project delivers training, employment, and improved community livelihoods, laying the foundation for healthier land and livestock and demonstrating the kind of high-integrity, socially grounded projects that Africa can lead with under Article 6.
Momentum is also building outside Africa. In July, the European Union announced that international credits could be reintroduced into its 2040 climate framework. From 2036, member states might be able to use such credits for up to three percent of their emissions reduction targets.
While the numbers may seem modest, this could represent billions of euros in demand, particularly if African projects can meet the EU’s insistence on Article 6 alignment and rigorous standards. That alignment is already underway, with a number of countries advancing governance frameworks that position them at the forefront of market participation.
At the heart of this reset is integrity. In recent years the global carbon market has been under intense scrutiny, with buyers and regulators demanding proof that credits represent real, additional, and verifiable climate benefits. For Africa, maintaining credibility is non-negotiable. Anything less risks undermining not only market growth but also trust in the wider climate effort.
This integrity must be built on a grassroots-up approach to project implementation. True success is rooted in a model of deep community engagement designed to understand local struggles and needs while empowering people to build their own plans for resilience and success.
When communities benefit directly, be it through jobs, education, health services, or improved ecosystems, projects are embraced, sustained, and scaled. When they do not, the risks are clear: social conflict, loss of trust, and ultimately market failure. Communities are not just stakeholders; they are the foundation of long-term success.
With CMAS on the horizon and COP30 in Brazil soon after, Africa has a chance to showcase its leadership and shape how global carbon markets evolve. Article 6 provides the architecture, Europe is signalling renewed demand, and Africa’s natural assets and social priorities make us uniquely well positioned to deliver.
If we get this right, Africa’s carbon markets will not only contribute to global climate goals but also unlock a wave of sustainable development across the continent. That is the balance we must strike and the opportunity we cannot afford to miss.
Storm Patel, Commercial Director of TASC, will be providing a keynote address at the Carbon Markets Africa Summit, which takes place in Johannesburg from October 21–23
