The Republic of Congo’s recent signing of an offshore exploration agreement that brings QatarEnergy into the Nzombo block is the latest signal that Africa’s oil and gas frontier is heating up. Under a new production-sharing arrangement announced in early September, QatarEnergy has taken a substantial participating interest alongside TotalEnergies, the designated operator, and the Congolese national oil company, as companies jockey for position to appraise deepwater prospects roughly 100 kilometres off Pointe-Noire in water depths that exceed 1,000 metres. The block, variously reported at about 1,000 square kilometres, is expected to be the focus of an exploration campaign that could include one or more wells before the end of 2025.
The deal crystallises two connected trends. First, international oil majors and national champions are redeploying capital to Africa’s offshore basins, from the Gulf of Guinea to the Orange and Walvis basins, after years of lower activity. Second, fast follow-up discoveries and seismic campaigns across the continent are creating a flurry of licence awards, seismic surveys and early-stage appraisal work that could reshape national energy balances.
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Rwanda’s confirmation in January of its first oil find in Lake Kivu, reported as 13 reservoirs requiring further appraisal, showed that new onshore and inland water resources can also surprise governments and investors. Meanwhile, BP- and Eni-backed Azule Energy announced a major gas discovery at Gajajeira-01 off Angola in mid-2025 with initial assessments pointing to more than one trillion cubic feet of gas and material condensate volumes; industry programmes and government statements say further appraisal will determine commercial strategy.
Across southern Africa, exploration activity is mounting. Major operators have signaled plans to drill in South African and Namibian waters as early as 2026–2027, with TotalEnergies publicly preparing a drilling campaign in the Deep Western Orange Basin and Chevron maturing prospects in Namibia’s Walvis Basin. Governments are responding in kind: Sierra Leone launched a new offshore 3D seismic survey this year to de-risk acreage and has internally referenced very large volumes of recoverable oil-equivalent in its maritime zone, headline figures that help explain the renewed investor interest. At the same time, smaller but material moves are under way in West Africa; Benin’s long-dormant Sèmè field has seen drilling restarted after decades of inactivity, signaling that previously marginal assets are being reconsidered for redevelopment.
For host countries the near-term allure is obvious: exploration success can generate jobs, royalties, foreign direct investment, and infrastructure that supports downstream industry. For oil companies, frontier basins offer high-upside, deepwater prospects that, if commercial, can produce material volumes relative to the cost base of exploration. Yet the renewed rush to explore also re-opens familiar fault lines. Offshore drilling in deep water raises environmental risk profiles that demand rigorous baseline studies, blowout and spill contingency planning, and transparent public consultation. The social license to operate cannot be assumed, as recent court rulings and civil-society pushback in South Africa and elsewhere have shown; regulators and companies that fail to meet strict environmental and social governance standards risk delays, legal challenges and reputational damage.
There are broader macroeconomic and climate trade-offs as well. New hydrocarbon revenues can finance development priorities, but they can also entrench dependence on fossil fuels at a moment when many African governments are navigating net-zero commitments, donor climate conditionality, and the risk of stranded assets if global demand or prices shift. The pattern of past oil booms, rapid inflows followed by governance shortfalls and uneven local value capture, instructive. Effective management of any future revenues therefore requires strong local content rules, transparent licensing and contracting, clear rules for revenue allocation and stabilization, and well-resourced sovereign and fiscal institutions that can translate windfalls into resilient investments in health, education, and clean energy transitions. These are policy requirements, not optional extras, if countries are to turn discoveries into durable development gains.
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Technically, the Nzombo block and similar deepwater prospects present both opportunity and cost. Deepwater drilling requires high specification rigs and advanced subsea equipment; the capital intensity is high and cycle times are long, which amplifies the importance of firm technical studies and realistic budget estimates. Conversely, gas finds such as Azule’s Gajajeira-01 in Angola can be more readily oriented to domestic power and industrial use, or to export via LNG, and therefore present a different set of policy choices for governments seeking to balance domestic energy security and export earnings. Angola’s energy ministry and Azule partners have said they will carry out further appraisal work to define development options and market strategies.
First, upcoming drill plans and environmental impact assessments tied to the Nzombo permit will indicate whether the acreage is technically promising and whether its operators take public scrutiny seriously; the work programme already flagged by partners could include an exploratory well before the end of 2025. Second, appraisal results from Azule’s Gajajeira-01 well and any follow-up wells will determine whether the discovery scales into a field development that can underpin gas-to-power plans or LNG schemes. Third, the outcomes of seismic reprocessing and licence rounds in jurisdictions such as Sierra Leone, which has begun a high-resolution 3D campaign and is weighing a new licensing round, will signal investor confidence in West Africa’s offshore basins. Finally, the pace and shape of projects like the Sèmè redevelopment in Benin will show whether smaller producers and independent operators can fast-track production to deliver local economic benefits.
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Governments must balance the short-term fiscal windfall from exploration and potential production against longer-term commitments to climate, to diversification of the economy, and to community welfare. Donors and multilateral development banks that finance infrastructure and energy transitions also face choices: support gas-to-power projects that reduce domestic emissions relative to diesel generation, or prioritise renewables and grid expansion that align more squarely with decarbonisation pathways. There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but a few practical priorities stand out: enforceable transparency in licensing and contracts, credible environmental and social safeguards, clear rules for local employment and procurement, and credible sovereign fiscal institutions to manage revenues. When new projects are designed with those elements at their core, nations are more likely to convert geological potential into broadly shared, sustainable gains.
The geography of investment in the continent is shifting, technologies have evolved, and global markets are more uncertain. If governments and partners treat this moment as an opportunity to modernise governance, invest in clean energy alternatives, and protect ecosystems and coastal communities, the benefits from hydrocarbons can be harnessed without repeating the mistakes of the past.
