Africa’s largest oil refinery is about to get even bigger—and the implications for the continent’s energy landscape could be transformative.
The $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, Nigeria, is undergoing a major expansion that will see its production capacity increase from 650,000 to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2025. Once complete, the facility will overtake South Korea’s Onsan Refinery to become the sixth-largest oil refinery in the world.
This marks another bold stride in billionaire Aliko Dangote’s vision to help Africa break free from its chronic dependence on imported refined petroleum products, an issue that has long hampered energy security, strained forex reserves, and weakened industrial competitiveness across the continent.
“We believe we will get to 700,000 bpd,” Dangote told journalists during a media tour of the sprawling refinery complex. “All the other departments have reached 100 per cent, and some are operating at 145 per cent capacity.”
At the heart of this upgrade is the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit, currently operating at 85 percent. This critical component transforms heavy crude oil into high-value products such as gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas—fuels urgently needed across African markets.
When fully operational, the refinery will not only meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand but also export refined products across West, Central, and Southern Africa—many of whose existing refineries are either dormant or operating below capacity.
Currently, only Algeria and Libya are considered self-sufficient in refining within Africa. The rest of the continent—South Africa included—relies heavily on fuel imports, making Dangote’s project uniquely strategic. The refinery’s success, however, hinges on overcoming global supply chain challenges and local infrastructural constraints.
Due to persistent inconsistencies in local crude supply, Dangote’s facility has turned to international sources. Between June and July 2025, the refinery imported 19 million barrels of crude oil from the United States—10 million of which arrived in July alone, accounting for over half of the refinery’s feedstock.
This paradox, where one of Africa’s top oil producers must import crude to run its own refinery, has reignited debates about structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s petroleum governance and the broader need for continental supply chain reforms.
The Dangote Refinery project originated from a failed bid to acquire Nigeria’s state-owned refineries in 2007. Rather than retreat, Dangote launched his own initiative to build a private-sector alternative that would set new industrial standards for Africa.
Despite unprecedented cost overruns, shifting regulatory frameworks, and global headwinds, the project has inched closer to full-scale operations—a feat that many global energy players once deemed improbable.
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Beyond its technical scale, the Dangote Refinery symbolizes a major economic assertion: that Africa can build and operate infrastructure of global standards, driven by local capital and ambition. But Dangote warned that African industrialization continues to be undermined by entrenched import systems.
“If you go to Lomé, you will see a massive number of ships. That’s what they do to attack all the industries in sub-Saharan Africa,” he noted. “Even the refineries in South Africa are barely operating. Only one is functional.”
This, he argues, is part of a systemic strategy by global players to maintain Africa as a consumer market rather than a producer and exporter of value-added energy products.
Dangote’s reflections on the project’s complexity offer a candid look into the challenge of mega-infrastructure in Africa: “People believe building a refinery is like building a house,” he said. “If I knew what we were going to face, I wouldn’t have started it.”
Still, he credits the group’s success to a willingness to take risks. “The luck we’ve had was because we didn’t know what we were getting into. But we believe that nothing is impossible.”
As the refinery nears full-scale production, it presents a powerful case for locally led infrastructure investment. More than just a refinery, the project reflects a deeper shift toward African self-reliance in energy, job creation, and cross-border economic development.
With Africa’s population projected to double by 2050, the need for domestic energy capacity is urgent. The Dangote Refinery’s expansion, if successful, could pave the way for similar investments across the continent—turning Africa from a fuel importer into a refining powerhouse. All eyes are now on Lagos, where one of the continent’s most ambitious energy ventures is rewriting the story of African industrial ambition—barrel by barrel.
