Ethiopia has entered a landmark partnership with Nigeria’s Dangote Group, signing a $2.5 billion agreement to build a fertiliser plant in the southeastern town of Gode. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who formally announced the deal, said the facility will have the capacity to produce three million metric tonnes of fertiliser annually. Once operational, the plant is expected to make Ethiopia a major supplier for its domestic farmers while positioning the country as a regional hub for agricultural inputs.
This development is part of a broader effort to end Africa’s dependency on imported fertilisers. The continent, despite holding nearly a quarter of the world’s arable land, consumes only a fraction of global fertiliser production. High costs, poor access, and fragile supply chains have long undermined food security across Africa. Ethiopia’s gamble is to shift from importer to producer, using its natural gas reserves in the Ogaden Basin as feedstock to power fertiliser production. For Ethiopian farmers, this could mean reduced import bills, more stable supplies, and greater protection from the volatility of global energy and commodity markets.
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Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, framed the partnership as more than a business venture. At the signing ceremony, he described it as a shared vision to industrialise Africa and secure the continent’s food future. The deal, signed between Ethiopian Investment Holdings and Dangote Group, gives Ethiopia a 40 percent stake in the project, while Dangote retains 60 percent. This arrangement allows the government to safeguard national interests while relying on Dangote’s expertise, capital, and global networks. Analysts see this model of joint ownership as a potential blueprint for other African nations trying to solve systemic challenges that governments or businesses cannot tackle alone.
The implications extend far beyond Ethiopia’s borders. Africa’s population is projected to rise from today’s 1.4 billion to nearly two billion by 2050, which will drive up demand for food and fertiliser alike. At present, food imports into Africa exceed $40 billion annually, a figure that risks climbing higher if local production continues to lag behind population growth. The new Ethiopian plant could ease that pressure, reducing reliance on imports while also supplying neighbouring markets in Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan. For Abiy Ahmed’s administration, the project aligns seamlessly with the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda, which prioritises industrialisation, agricultural transformation, and energy development.
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Dangote’s investment in Ethiopia also reflects his wider continental strategy. Already behind the world’s largest single-train oil refinery in Lagos and a major fertiliser plant in Nigeria, Dangote is steadily expanding his industrial footprint across Africa. His ventures are reshaping Africa’s role in global trade, shifting the continent from a supplier of raw materials to a producer of value-added goods like fertiliser and refined petroleum. By retaining more value within Africa, Dangote is challenging long-standing trade patterns that left African countries dependent on imports of finished products.
Nevertheless, the Gode project is not without risks. Fertiliser production is highly energy-intensive and reliant on natural gas, raising questions about Ethiopia’s carbon footprint just as the country seeks to position itself as a climate leader. Without investment in cleaner technologies or carbon capture, critics warn, the plant could entrench a high-carbon industrial pathway. Governance and execution also remain critical issues. Africa’s history is dotted with mega-projects that stalled due to financing difficulties, mismanagement, or political turbulence. Ensuring transparency, fair pricing, and equitable distribution of benefits will be key to avoiding similar pitfalls.
There are also concerns about affordability and access for smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Ethiopia’s agricultural economy. Even if production scales up successfully, weak rural distribution systems, limited access to credit, and inadequate extension services could prevent fertiliser from reaching the farmers who need it most. On a regional level, Ethiopia’s strained relations with Egypt and Sudan over the Nile, as well as debates about resource control within Ethiopia, may add further complexity to the plant’s rollout.
Sustainability experts argue that fertiliser expansion must go hand in hand with climate-smart agriculture. Overuse of chemical fertilisers risks degrading soils, polluting waterways, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. But when integrated with organic inputs, precision application, and broader soil management practices, fertilisers can boost yields while preserving environmental health. Nigeria’s experience with its own Dangote fertiliser plant, which reportedly saved $10 billion in foreign exchange, offers Ethiopia a possible roadmap. By reinvesting such savings into renewable energy, irrigation, and storage systems, the country could build a more climate-resilient agricultural sector.
Ultimately, the $2.5 billion fertiliser project is a defining test of Africa’s ability to move towards self-reliance. For Ethiopia, it is a declaration of intent: to cut dependence on imports, strengthen its farming base, and harness its energy resources for industrial growth. For Dangote, it represents another step in his mission to industrialise Africa at scale. If successful, the Gode fertiliser plant could become a continental landmark, proof that Africa can not only build but also sustain world-class industrial projects.
The legacy of this investment, however, will depend not on the fanfare of the signing ceremony but on delivery. Its success will be measured in the bags of fertiliser that reach smallholder farmers in Ethiopia and across the Horn of Africa. Optimism is high, but as history has shown, execution will determine whether this project becomes a beacon of self-reliance or another missed opportunity.
Ethiopia and Dangote Group have lit a spark of possibility: that Africa can feed itself, industrialise on its own terms, and rewrite the narrative of dependency that has defined its agricultural past.
