Kenya’s state generator KenGen is accelerating exploration and upgrades across the Rift Valley, spanning Suswa, Olkaria, Menengai and the Baringo–Silali prospect, as the country’s power demand breaks successive records and policymakers push to squeeze thermal generation off the grid. On July 23, 2025, Kenya’s system peak hit 2,362.28 MW, a new high confirmed by Kenya Power; officials reported a marginally higher mark in early August, underscoring a trend that is outpacing recent capacity additions
At the heart of the plan is Olkaria, Africa’s flagship geothermal complex. KenGen says an ongoing revamp will add 63 MW by September 2026, part of a wider renewal of older units to deliver cheaper, weather-proof baseload into the grid. The timeline has been reiterated by company updates and trade press in recent weeks
Further north, Kenya’s second geothermal cluster at Menengai is moving toward full build-out. One 35 MW plant (Sosian) was commissioned in August 2023; a second 35 MW unit by Orpower 22 is under construction, rounding out GDC’s long-planned 105 MW Menengai program that uses a “steam-supply by GDC, generation by IPPs” model. Government messaging in recent weeks has also pointed to about 70 MW of additional Menengai capacity targeted for near-term delivery as Kenya retires thermal units this decade
The exploration frontier is Baringo–Silali, a string of Quaternary volcanoes—Paka, Korosi and Silali—where GDC has been drilling since the 2010s. July updates from government and local media flagged fresh steam finds at Silali (approximately 22 MW), with officials eyeing first power from the Paka field later this decade, the clearest signal yet that Kenya intends to spread geothermal production beyond the Naivasha basin
Kenya’s push comes as two realities converge. Demand is rising, from factory expansions to new household connections and a budding e-mobility and data-center load, while hydropower’s variability under drought conditions and diesel’s volatility on global fuel markets have strengthened the case for geothermal as the country’s baseload anchor. Regulators’ most recent statistics show geothermal as Kenya’s single largest source by both installed capacity and generation share. The country also has the resource depth to back the strategy: while one official narrative mistakenly attributes 10,000 MW to Olkaria alone, peer-reviewed and agency sources place ~10,000 MW as Kenya’s national geothermal potential along the Rift, from Naivasha to Baringo and south toward Suswa
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Kenya’s sprint is part of a wider East African Rift System pivot. Ethiopia is advancing the IPP flagships Tulu Moye (Phase 1: 50 MW, expandable) and Corbetti, with years of drilling logged and financing and PPAs progressing in fits and starts; if these reach steady operation, Ethiopia could emerge as the region’s second geothermal hub after Kenya.
Djibouti continues work at Fiale/Lac Assal, backed by multilaterals funding exploration and test wells to unlock its first baseload beyond imports. Tanzania has mapped 50+ prospects and is focusing early capital on Ngozi and Kiejo–Mbaka in the Southern Highlands under public developer TGDC, with plans through 2030 and drilling programs supported by the Geothermal Risk Mitigation Facility (GRMF). This build-out rides atop strengthening regional interconnectors: the Ethiopia–Kenya HVDC line (±500 kV, 2,000 MW) linking Wolaita-Sodo to Suswa is already enabling trade, and Kenya plans to double imports from Ethiopia to 400 MW by 2026, a backstop to balance hydro, wind and geothermal across the Eastern Africa Power Pool.
Money and risk remain pivotal. Early geothermal wells are capital-intensive and risky, but Africa has built a de-risking toolkit. The GRMF, run by the African Union Commission with support from KfW and EU funds, offers grants for surface studies and reservoir-confirmation drilling across 15 eligible countries; Kenya’s Baringo–Silali and several Tanzanian and Djiboutian prospects have tapped this window. AfDB, the OPEC Fund, and others have layered concessional capital and guarantees to crowd in IPPs at Menengai, Djibouti and Ethiopia. Training and technical capacity have expanded around a Kenya-hosted Geothermal Centre of Excellence backed by UNEP/AU partners, quiet but crucial scaffolding for utilities and regulators.
The near-term tests are straightforward. If KenGen lands the +63 MW at Olkaria by September 2026, Kenya will further trim its exposure to costly thermal peakers and help steady bills through dry seasons. Bringing Menengai’s full 105 MW online, with Sosian already running and Orpower 22 advancing, will show whether the GDC-as-steam-supplier/IPPs-as-generators model scales as intended.
Turning Baringo–Silali from steam to steel, on the heels of new finds at Silali and a development push at Paka, could unlock the first commercial megawatts from Kenya’s northern Rift later in the decade, broadening the map beyond Naivasha. As the Ethiopia–Kenya HVDC settles in alongside a maturing EAPP market, cross-border balancing should give utilities more room to arbitrage wet and dry seasons and dispatch geothermal against variable hydro and wind.
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The bottom line is that Kenya remains the continent’s pace-setter in geothermal, hovering near the 1 GW mark when counting IPPs, with regulators confirming it as the top contributor to the national mix by both capacity and generation. The next leg is less about breaking records and more about delivering projects on time, pushing Menengai and Baringo–Silali from promise to power, and knitting the region together so geothermal baseload can underpin an East African grid that is cleaner, cheaper and more resilient
