Namibia’s energy ambitions have moved from aspiration to strategy. Last week at African Energy Week 2025 in Cape Town (Sept 29 – Oct 3), Kornelia Shilunga, Special Advisor and Head of the Upstream Petroleum Unit in the Office of the Presidency, outlined a roadmap that takes the country from discovery to production within the decade. She spoke not as an optimist, but as an administrator with a plan: a phased journey that places Namibia among the most closely watched new petroleum provinces in the world. With significant discoveries in the Orange Basin and mounting global investor confidence, the nation is positioning itself as both a frontier producer and a model for responsible energy governance in Africa.
What began with seismic lines and exploration licenses along Namibia’s southwestern coast has matured into a cluster of confirmed discoveries that have redrawn global petroleum maps. In less than four years, the Orange Basin has delivered finds that international operators describe as “world-class.” TotalEnergies’ Venus field in Petroleum Exploration License (PEL) 56, followed by Galp’s multi-reservoir Mopane complex in PEL 83, and Rhino Resources’ Capricornus, Sagittarius, and Voltans discoveries in PEL 85, together paint a picture of a basin rich in light oil and condensate potential. These developments have prompted analysts to estimate that Namibia could be hosting more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in combined prospective resources, an extraordinary figure for a country that has never produced a drop of commercial oil.
The discoveries have also altered the tempo of exploration. At any given moment in 2025, as many as six rigs have been active offshore Namibia, a density comparable to Ghana at the height of its Jubilee appraisal phase in 2010. This pace suggests that Namibia’s first production could arrive by 2029 or 2030, contingent on infrastructure build-out and final investment decisions. Government projections are cautiously optimistic: if even a quarter of the current discoveries are developed, Namibia’s oil revenues could rival 30% of its GDP by 2035, dramatically transforming a small, diversified economy currently anchored by mining, agriculture, and tourism.
To the northeast, in the Kavango Basin bordering Botswana, exploration continues to probe the country’s onshore potential. ReconAfrica’s campaign in the region has generated both anticipation and controversy, praised for its geological promise and scrutinized for its environmental footprint. Shilunga acknowledged this complexity, noting that “responsible and transparent operations are not optional, they are foundational to how Namibia intends to grow this industry.” Her statement echoes the government’s insistence that upstream development will be guided by environmental safeguards, local participation, and a strict adherence to disclosure protocols.
This posture marks a deliberate effort to distinguish Namibia’s model from the troubled legacies of other oil-rich states in the region. The government has refined its fiscal and regulatory architecture, introducing transparent licensing procedures and revising profit-sharing frameworks to ensure predictable returns for investors while protecting state equity. The Petroleum Exploration Licensing regime now covers deepwater, ultra-deepwater, and shallow-water acreage, offering competitive terms that still demand local content integration and environmental accountability. For an emerging producer, these policy foundations are not simply bureaucratic milestones; they are instruments for long-term credibility.
The world’s energy transition is well underway, and financiers now weigh carbon intensity as carefully as profit margins. Namibia enters this conversation at a point when technologies for carbon management, gas utilization, and clean power integration are both available and affordable. Plans for early field development already include electrification through renewable energy in coastal zones, aligning petroleum infrastructure with Namibia’s broader National Energy Policy, which targets 70% renewable power generation by 2030. If executed properly, Namibia could become one of the first African states to produce oil within a low-carbon framework, turning resource extraction into a platform for broader energy diversification rather than a detour from it.
The wider African significance of Namibia’s rise cannot be overstated. Across the continent, the pattern has been familiar: discovery followed by infrastructure delay, fiscal friction, and social contestation. Nigeria waited over a decade between its first Deepwater discoveries and stable production; Uganda’s Lake Albert project, discovered in 2006, will only reach first oil in 2026. Namibia’s ambition to shorten that timeline to under ten years reflects not haste, but an effort to learn from history, to build infrastructure and institutions concurrently.
Practically, this means partnerships that bring not only capital but also the transfer of technology and technical know-how. Namibia’s joint-venture model is designed to integrate state participation through NAMCOR while giving private operators the operational lead. It is a balance that, if sustained, can prevent the resource nationalism and policy reversals that have derailed similar projects elsewhere in Africa.
Namibia’s coastal towns; Walvis Bay, Lüderitz, Oranjemund, are already planning for logistics bases, service ports, and workforce housing. Construction of an offshore supply corridor could generate thousands of direct jobs and tens of thousands of indirect ones, injecting liquidity into local economies and accelerating skills development. Yet such growth will test Namibia’s environmental and social governance capacity. Managing waste, emissions, and marine safety will determine whether “sustainability” remains a slogan or becomes a measurable outcome.
Kornelia Shilunga’s remarks at African Energy Week captured that balance of ambition and caution. “Our vision is not just to become a producer,” she said, “but to build a sustainable and responsible energy future anchored in partnership and shared prosperity.” In a continent where energy abundance has too often translated into volatility, Namibia’s calm, methodical rise may prove instructive. The nation is not merely entering the oil age; it is attempting to redefine what responsible entry looks like.
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