Amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, Brent crude has jumped nearly 20% in June, the largest monthly increase since 2020, stirring anxiety across global markets. While oil flows remain uninterrupted for now, the volatility reawakens vulnerabilities for Africa, a region with a complex relationship to fossil fuels: as both a net importer and emerging producer.
At the heart of the concern lies the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic artery through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption could send oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, a threshold that many African economies — especially oil-importing ones — can ill afford. From Kenya and Senegal to Morocco and Ethiopia, nations heavily reliant on fuel imports face the threat of inflationary pressure, fiscal strain, and social unrest.
However, this moment also raises deeper sustainability questions: Why does Africa remain exposed to energy price shocks? What buffers can governments build to insulate citizens from global fossil fuel disruptions?
According to sustainability analysts, the spike in oil prices operates like a regressive tax, hurting low-income consumers and slowing growth in developing economies. “We’ve seen this cycle before,” notes Dr. Amina Baraka, an independent climate finance advisor. “Geopolitical tension leads to a price spike, and the poor pay the heaviest price. This underscores the urgency for African countries to double down on clean energy transitions.”
The contrast is stark. While nations like Nigeria and Angola may benefit from higher oil revenues in the short term, their windfalls are often offset by structural inefficiencies and subsidy burdens. Meanwhile, countries with minimal fossil reserves continue to bear the brunt of market shocks.
Read more: Egypt scrambles for energy after Israel halts exports, exposing Africa’s supply fragility
This is where Africa’s sustainability agenda becomes urgent and strategic. Diversification through renewable energy, regional power pools, and green infrastructure investment must be accelerated, not as an ideal, but as an economic imperative.
Furthermore, Africa’s voice must be present in global energy dialogues. Too often, the continent is seen as a passive recipient of shocks rather than an active agent of change.
In the long run, inflation forecasts tied to oil, such as the expected 0.5% CPI rise in the U.S. or a 1% drag on global growth — pale in comparison to what vulnerable African economies could endure. Yet, amidst the risk lies an opportunity: to leverage this crisis as a catalyst for stronger, locally led energy systems.
Read also: President Tinubu to spotlight Nigeria’s energy reform strategy at African Energy Week 2025
