In a pioneering step toward proactive disaster risk reduction, the Nigerian federal government, working closely with multiple United Nations agencies, has launched an anticipatory action simulation exercise in the flood-vulnerable Kwanta community of Adamawa State. This pilot effort marks a strategic departure from traditional post-disaster response approaches and introduces a science-based framework that emphasizes early preparedness, timely intervention, and community-led resilience in the face of increasingly frequent and severe flooding events.
The four-day exercise (June 16 – 19, 2025), coordinated by the Office of the Vice President (Nigeria) alongside the World Food Programme (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), is designed to test Nigeria’s early warning systems and flood contingency protocols. It involves coordinated simulations that include emergency evacuation drills, dissemination of flood alerts, and the alignment of community-level responses with national disaster agencies. The aim is to reduce human and economic losses through forward-looking risk governance, a concept now gaining traction globally as climate extremes escalate.
Nigeria is no stranger to climate-induced disasters. According to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), more than 600 people were killed and over 1.3 million displaced by devastating floods in 2022. Dam overflows, poor urban drainage, deforestation, and climate volatility have contributed to a complex hydrological risk profile, particularly in the Northeast. Adamawa State, situated along the Benue River Basin, has experienced multiple flood emergencies in recent years, often with long-lasting humanitarian and food security implications.
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This simulation exercise is not merely an academic drill; it represents the operationalization of an anticipatory action framework developed between the Nigerian government and its international partners. Mr. Akeem Ajibola, Programme Policy Officer at the WFP, described the pilot as “the first of its kind,” noting that the goal is to safeguard both lives and livelihoods before disaster strikes. He emphasized that systems are being activated ahead of the 2025 flood season to ensure that response is not reactive, but preemptive.
Beyond technical training, the pilot reflects a strategic shift in policy. The Nigerian government, under President Bola Tinubu, has publicly committed to a new paradigm of disaster preparedness. Mrs. Inna Audu, Special Assistant to the President on Humanitarian Affairs and Development Partners, called the initiative a national turning point. She announced that N80 billion has been allocated to the Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation to repair structural vulnerabilities in the country’s dam infrastructure, a critical move considering that failing dams have been major flood catalysts in the past.
Moreover, the program integrates social protection mechanisms. Vulnerable populations in flood-prone areas are expected to receive targeted support through conditional cash transfers to facilitate relocation and cushion the socioeconomic impact of displacement. This integration of anticipatory action with poverty alleviation and humanitarian relief is emblematic of a growing understanding that climate risk is inseparable from broader development outcomes.
At the state level, the enthusiasm is palpable. Mrs. Ciline Laori, Permanent Secretary of the Adamawa State Emergency Management Agency (ADSEMA), underscored the exercise as a transformative event in local disaster preparedness. Echoing her, Mr. Bulus Daniel, Chairman of Lamurde Local Government Area, noted that the training has imparted practical skills to community members who are often the first responders in real flood scenarios.
The initiative is being rolled out in collaboration with Nigeria’s key disaster institutions, including the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), NiMet, NIHSA, and ADSEMA. The involvement of these agencies ensures that the simulation is not an isolated exercise but part of a broader institutional learning and systems-strengthening agenda.
Internationally, anticipatory action has gained traction as a cost-effective, high-impact strategy. The World Bank estimates that every $1 invested in early warning and preparedness saves up to $6 in disaster response and recovery. For a country like Nigeria—where fiscal constraints and climate vulnerability intersect—this pilot offers a replicable model for localized, data-driven adaptation.
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As the pilot concludes in Kwanta, the spotlight now turns to scale-up. Will this simulation evolve into a national anticipatory action framework? Can early warning translate into early action across all 36 states, particularly in densely populated urban flood zones? These questions will define the next chapter of Nigeria’s climate resilience journey.
What is clear is that the conversation around floods in Nigeria is shifting—from one of helplessness and aftermath to one of anticipation, science-based planning, and inclusive governance. For a country navigating the dual pressures of ecological degradation and humanitarian need, this evolution may prove to be one of its most vital.
