On January 26, 2026, in Nairobi, the Kenya Meteorological Department moved to counter a heat wave alert that had spread rapidly on social media, stating that the warning did not come from the department and that the high temperatures being felt across much of the country are consistent with Kenya’s normal January-to-March climate pattern. The clarification was issued as daytime heat intensified in several regions, raising public concern about whether the country was experiencing an extreme weather event and how such conditions fit into wider climate pressures affecting Africa.
According to the department’s temperature climatology, the first quarter of the year has historically recorded the highest temperatures nationwide. January, February and March are typically dry, with extended sunshine and limited cloud cover, conditions that naturally push daytime temperatures upward. Meteorologists explained that readings above 30 degrees Celsius in the Coast, North-eastern and North-western Kenya, and parts of the south-eastern lowlands fall squarely within seasonal expectations rather than signaling a sudden or abnormal heat episode.
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The weekly outlook for January 27 to February 2 reinforces this picture. Most of the country is expected to remain sunny and dry, with only isolated light showers in the Highlands on both sides of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, sections of the Rift Valley, the Coast and the south-eastern lowlands. In contrast to the hot afternoons, some areas are likely to experience sharp temperature drops at night. Parts of the Central Highlands, the North and Central Rift Valley and zones near Mount Kilimanjaro may record minimum temperatures below 10 degrees Celsius, underscoring the pronounced day–night temperature swings that characterise this season.
While the department’s message was narrowly focused on correcting misinformation, it sits within a broader regional context in which climate variability is placing increasing strain on economies and ecosystems. Across the Greater Horn of Africa, weather extremes have become more frequent and more disruptive. Prolonged droughts have reduced agricultural output, floods have damaged infrastructure, and heat stress has affected both human health and livestock productivity. These patterns are not uniform from year to year, but their cumulative economic cost has been mounting.
At the regional level, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, through its climate arm, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, has repeatedly warned that the Horn of Africa remains highly exposed to climate shocks. Speaking in Nairobi during the opening of the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, IGAD officials pointed to recurrent droughts, floods and heat stress as persistent threats to food security, infrastructure and livelihoods across member states. In countries where agriculture employs more than half the workforce, even modest shifts in temperature and rainfall can translate into significant economic losses.
Kenya offers a practical illustration of these dynamics. Agriculture contributes roughly a fifth of the country’s gross domestic product and underpins rural incomes. Hot, dry spells during the early months of the year can accelerate soil moisture loss and increase irrigation demand, raising production costs for farmers. In urban centres such as Nairobi, sustained heat boosts electricity consumption as households and businesses rely more heavily on cooling, adding pressure to power systems already grappling with fluctuating hydropower output during dry periods.
The challenge is not limited to Kenya. From Ethiopia’s highlands to Somalia’s arid lowlands, temperature variability intersects with water scarcity, population growth and infrastructure gaps. Climate scientists working with national meteorological agencies and partners such as the World Meteorological Organization have invested heavily in improving seasonal forecasting and early warning systems. These tools are designed to help governments, farmers and utilities plan for expected conditions rather than react to crises after they unfold.
Against this backdrop, the Kenyan weather agency’s insistence on verified information carries practical weight. False alerts can distort public perception, trigger unnecessary panic and undermine trust in official advisories that are critical when genuine hazards emerge. By reiterating that it will issue alerts only through its official channels when conditions warrant, the department is reinforcing a system built on data, historical records and continuous monitoring.
The current heat, by the agency’s account, is neither unprecedented nor unexpected. It arrives in a region where climate-related risks are intensifying, and where the line between normal seasonal patterns and damaging extremes is becoming harder to draw. Understanding that distinction, and grounding public discussion in accurate, locally relevant data, remains essential as African countries navigate a warming climate with limited buffers against its economic and social impacts.
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