Senegal’s economy has recently been declared 13.5 percent larger than previously estimated after the country completed a long-delayed GDP rebasing, a shift that reshapes its fiscal outlook at a time when the International Monetary Fund is expressing concern over the government’s liquidity pressures.
The revised figures, released by Senegal’s national statistics office, update the base year from 2014 to 2021 and bring the size of the economy to 17.32 trillion CFA francs, or about $30.6 billion, offering a clearer picture of the country’s expanding productive sectors.
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Officials said the revision captures areas of the economy that have grown rapidly over the past decade but were insufficiently represented in the old framework. Digital financial services, which now process millions of mobile-based transactions monthly, have become central to urban and rural commerce alike.
Oil and gas activities, particularly linked to new offshore developments, have increasingly shaped investor interest. Cashew production, once peripheral in national accounts, has also grown into a key agricultural export, with rising contributions from smallholder cooperatives in the southern regions. Together, these sectors have materially influenced the recalibrated national output.
The new calculations reduce Senegal’s 2021 debt-to-GDP ratio from 90.8 percent to 80 percent, a softer figure that offers temporary breathing room but does not erase the scrutiny the country has faced since a debt-misreporting scandal surfaced last year.
That episode prompted successive credit-rating downgrades and led the International Monetary Fund to suspend a $1.8 billion lending programme, forcing the government to confront questions about transparency and the accuracy of its public finance data.
Finance Minister Cheikh Diba, addressing lawmakers on Friday, confirmed that while the IMF welcomes the improved data quality, the Fund remains uneasy about Senegal’s ability to meet its financing obligations over the coming years. The concerns arise as the government prepares for elevated expenditure tied to energy sector investments, broader social programmes and post-scandal fiscal repair. Senegal’s borrowing needs, according to analysts in Dakar, may continue to rise before the expected oil and gas production ramp-up delivers sustained revenue gains.
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In the broader West African context, the rebasing places Senegal more firmly among the region’s middle-tier economies, narrowing the statistical gap between countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, both of which have undergone their own data revisions over the past decade. But the new numbers also highlight the regional pattern of governments relying on rebasing exercises to present more accurate assessments of economic strength while simultaneously navigating tighter credit conditions and rising debt-service costs.
For Senegal, the updated GDP offers a more current map of its evolving economic landscape, but it does not resolve the immediate questions hanging over public finances. The government’s next steps, both in restoring investor confidence and meeting IMF expectations, will determine whether the improved statistical footing can translate into sustainable economic stability.
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