Africa’s transition to a low-carbon economy could create up to 84.5 million jobs by 2050, positioning the continent as one of the world’s largest emerging green labour markets. However, without targeted investments in skills development, labour protections and inclusive financing, the transition risks reinforcing existing inequalities rather than delivering broad-based economic transformation, according to a new report released by FSD Africa.
The report, titled Unlocking Africa’s Green Transition: Opportunities Towards a Green and Inclusive Workforce, was launched by FSD Africa in partnership with Shell Foundation and talent advisory firm Shortlist Africa. It presents one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of the employment potential associated with Africa’s growing green economy and highlights the policy choices that will determine whether the transition becomes a driver of inclusive development or a source of widening economic disparities.
According to the study, Africa could generate between 3.8 million and 7.9 million green jobs by 2030, with employment opportunities rising dramatically to between 65.9 million and 84.5 million by mid-century. Unlike green transitions in many developed economies, where large-scale infrastructure projects dominate employment creation, Africa’s green workforce is expected to be driven primarily by decentralised and service-oriented sectors such as clean cooking, off-grid solar energy, electric mobility and waste recycling.
These sectors are projected to create millions of jobs through distribution networks, installation services, maintenance operations and last-mile delivery systems. Such activities could provide important employment opportunities for young people, women and low-income workers, particularly in rapidly urbanising economies across the continent.
The findings come at a time when African governments are seeking pathways to simultaneously address climate challenges, unemployment and economic development. With the continent expected to host the world’s fastest-growing workforce over the coming decades, the green economy is increasingly viewed as a strategic opportunity to generate livelihoods while advancing climate goals.
Yet the report warns that Africa’s capacity to capture these opportunities remains constrained by significant workforce development challenges.
Despite possessing approximately 60 percent of the world’s highest-quality solar resources, Africa currently accounts for only 2 percent of the global renewable energy workforce. At the same time, only 6.5 percent of African youth have completed formal vocational training, creating a substantial skills gap in sectors expected to drive future green growth.
The report also highlights a major financing imbalance. Less than 1 percent of global climate finance currently supports skills development and workforce training, despite growing recognition that human capital is essential to delivering successful climate and energy transitions.
Without significant investment in workforce development, the report warns that many green projects may struggle to scale, become dependent on imported expertise or fail to generate meaningful local economic benefits.
“Unlike other regions, the employment dividend of Africa’s green transition will be realised through service value chains, not construction sites, and we have to invest accordingly,” said Kevin Munjal, Director of Development Impact at FSD Africa.
“Finance directed towards sectors such as clean cooking, distributed solar, waste recycling and e-mobility will generate substantially more employment than utility-scale infrastructure. But we also need the right policy frameworks to make that happen,”he added.
Beyond skills shortages, the report raises concerns about the quality of future green employment. It estimates that approximately 86 percent of green jobs created by 2030 will be informal, leaving the majority of workers outside traditional labour protections and social security systems.
The sectors expected to create the largest number of jobs, including clean cooking, waste management and solar home systems, are also those with the lowest barriers to entry and often the weakest employment safeguards. While these industries may generate significant economic opportunities, workers frequently operate without formal contracts, pension benefits, healthcare coverage or legal protections.
Women and young people are expected to be among the primary beneficiaries of green job creation. However, the report cautions that they are also likely to be concentrated in lower-value and commission-based positions unless deliberate interventions are introduced to improve career progression pathways and employment quality.
“Africa’s green transition represents one of the most significant economic opportunities of our generation. However, this vision can only be realised if the green economy is designed to work for the lower-income and informal workers who power our society, and in particular for women,”said Richard Gomes, Chief Programme Officer at Shell Foundation.
“The prize here is not simply more green jobs. The prize is future-proofed jobs anchored in sectors that will continue to grow as the world navigates compounding climate, energy and economic disruption,”he said.
The report argues that employment outcomes will depend heavily on policy and investment decisions made over the coming years. Under a high-growth scenario supported by enabling policies and targeted investment, Africa could generate nearly eight million green jobs by 2030. In contrast, a lower-investment pathway could result in employment creation less than half that figure, while reducing potential green employment by as many as 18.5 million jobs by 2050.
Among its recommendations, the report calls for increased financing for labour-intensive green sectors, greater investment in vocational and technical training systems, stronger integration of workforce development into climate finance programmes and expanded social protection mechanisms for informal workers.
It also advocates for innovative financing models that can unlock capital for skills development, arguing that workforce investments should be treated as a core component of climate transition planning rather than a secondary consideration.
“The right human capital is an important input for successful climate-positive growth, so we have to be sure Africa’s workforce is ready for what’s needed,”said Paul Breloff, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Shortlist Africa.
“But high-quality jobs are also an exciting benefit of the green transformation. Now we have an even better idea where these millions of jobs and livelihood opportunities will come from and what we can do to make sure the market is ready,” he added.
The report also underscores the diversity of green economy pathways across the continent. Examining Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, the study found that each country presents a distinct transition model shaped by different economic structures, governance systems and labour market characteristics.
Nigeria’s projected green workforce remains heavily informal and largely driven by micro and nano-enterprises, with approximately 87 percent of green jobs expected to operate outside the formal economy by 2030. South Africa presents a contrasting picture, with around 70 percent of projected green employment expected to be formal due to stronger regulatory frameworks and procurement systems.
Kenya occupies a middle position, benefiting from its advanced mobile money ecosystem, entrepreneurial culture and devolved governance structures that support local innovation and service delivery.
More broadly, the report projects that East and Southern Africa could account for 58 percent of high-scenario green employment by 2050 despite representing only 40 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population. Researchers attribute this advantage to stronger enabling conditions, including infrastructure, financial inclusion and policy readiness. To help address the challenges identified in the report, FSD Africa announced the launch of the Green Jobs Innovation Hub, an initiative designed to mobilise finance, partnerships and innovative workforce solutions across the continent. The platform will focus on developing financing mechanisms that support workforce development and ensure that skills creation keeps pace with investments in green infrastructure and climate-related sectors.
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The report concludes with a call for coordinated action among governments, development finance institutions, private-sector investors and training providers. It argues that climate and industrial policies must integrate employment and skills objectives from the outset if Africa is to maximise the economic benefits of its green transition.
As global investment in clean energy and climate solutions accelerates, Africa’s ability to translate its vast renewable resource potential into sustainable and inclusive employment opportunities may ultimately determine whether the continent emerges as a leader in the green economy or remains on its margins. The decisions taken today, the report suggests, will shape not only climate outcomes but also the future of work for millions of Africans over the coming decades.
