Africa, a continent that contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, is set to bear the brunt of climate change sooner than expected. A new study published in CABI Reviews warns that all five subregions of Africa will surpass the 1.5°C warming threshold by 2040—even under the most optimistic low-emission scenarios. This looming crisis underscores the urgent need for a “just transition” in African agriculture, ensuring sustainability while safeguarding livelihoods.
Researchers from the University of Zimbabwe and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya conducted an extensive literature review to develop a framework for Africa’s transition to a climate-resilient agricultural future. Their findings are alarming: climate hazards are set to intensify, disproportionately affecting communities that depend on climate-sensitive agriculture.
Despite the continent’s minimal contribution to global emissions, Africa faces outsized consequences, including food insecurity, economic instability, and amplified social injustices. Gender disparities, employment challenges, and deep-seated inequalities are all expected to worsen under escalating climate pressures.
Lead author Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe, warns that existing and planned adaptation strategies are insufficient. “African agriculture-based livelihoods will be the most affected due to their reliance on climate-sensitive practices and limited adaptive capacity,” he explains. “Losses and damages are already significant, and they will only increase as climate hazards intensify.”
To counter this, the researchers advocate for a just transition pathway—a roadmap for transforming African agriculture into a low-emission, climate-resilient system. This transition must prioritize fairness, ensuring that no one is left behind as countries pivot to sustainable farming practices
According to the study, Africa’s agricultural transformation must focus on climate-proofing key systems:
- Advancing science, technology, and innovation in agriculture
- Restoring underutilized crops and livestock genetic pools
- Enhancing soil health and regenerating degraded lands
- Protecting natural ecosystems and biodiversity
- Expanding access to education, training, and digital technologies
- Strengthening market opportunities and trade networks
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Prof. Mapfumo also highlights the need for a Green Industrial Revolution tailored to Africa’s needs. “Mechanization and sustainable agricultural practices must be at the heart of Africa’s response to climate change,” he says. “We need a fundamental shift in how we educate and equip future generations to drive economic growth in the face of a warming world.”
The study’s proposed just transition framework offers a roadmap for social inclusion, capacity-building, and climate action investments. If implemented effectively, it could help build a climate-resilient agriculture sector that contributes meaningfully to both poverty eradication and carbon reduction goals.
Funded by the African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES), this research is a stark reminder: Africa’s climate future depends on decisive action today. Policymakers, scientists, and agricultural stakeholders must join forces to forge a just and sustainable path forward.
The countdown has begun. Will Africa rise to the challenge before it’s too late?
