The clean energy transition is accelerating faster than expected—and for the first time, global renewable energy growth has outpaced demand. According to BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2025, this milestone may mark the beginning of a structural decline in energy-related carbon emissions, signaling a major breakthrough in the path toward net-zero emissions by 2050.
A Tipping Point for Global Emissions?
BloombergNEF’s updated Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) shows global energy-related CO₂ emissions likely peaked in 2024, following record investments in solar, wind, hydropower, and energy efficiency measures. From this peak, emissions are projected to fall by 9% by 2030, 13% by 2035, and a significant 22% by 2050—if current policies and trends continue.
This signals a historic turning point: the decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions. Solar and wind alone are responsible for about 75% of the expected emission reductions, with the rest coming from electrified transport, improved efficiency, and fuel switching.
For the first time, the increase in clean energy capacity globally has exceeded the pace of energy demand growth—indicating that renewables are not just adding to the grid but actively displacing fossil fuels.
Countries like the United States, China, and members of the European Union are setting the pace in emissions reduction. All signatories to the Paris Agreement are due to submit revised 2035 climate targets by early 2025, and many are already laying out ambitious pathways.
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Australia, the EU, and South Korea will need to cut emissions by around 70% relative to 2019 levels to align with the 1.5°C target. Meanwhile, India retains some headroom to grow emissions by up to 27% while still aligning with global carbon budgets—thanks in part to its lower historical emissions.
Brazil and the United Kingdom have already tabled 2035 targets compatible with net-zero ambitions. Japan’s pathway sits between BloombergNEF’s base case and net-zero scenarios. On the other hand, emissions in Vietnam and Indonesia are projected to rise, while Africa and the Middle East may see emissions plateau.
This global divergence highlights the uneven playing field in energy transitions. For Africa, which contributes less than 4% of global emissions but faces disproportionate climate impacts, the focus must be twofold: scaling up renewables and securing climate finance for equitable development.
The United States is forecast to cut energy-related emissions by 16% by 2035 and 29% by 2050. The power sector is leading the charge, with expected emission reductions of 22% by 2035, driven by the expansion of wind, solar, and battery storage.
However, road transport remains a challenge. Rising travel volumes and slower-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) adoption are pushing transport emissions upward. Oil refining and gas-fired power are also expanding in some states.
Still, U.S. wind capacity is expected to double to 321 gigawatts (GW) by 2035, while solar is set to triple to 692 GW. Battery storage is projected to rise sixfold, from 29 GW in 2024 to 175 GW in 2035. These projections benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act, which continues to provide crucial policy incentives. However, tariffs on imported clean energy components may dampen future installations, potentially cutting battery growth by 27% and solar by 7% by 2050 if not addressed.
One of the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand globally is data centers, driven by AI, cloud computing, and cryptocurrency mining. Electricity demand from data centers is projected to rise from 1,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2035 to 3,700 TWh in 2050—representing 9% of total global demand.
To meet this demand, the world needs to add 362 GW of new generation capacity by 2035. While renewables will likely supply most of this, fossil fuels could still provide up to 64% of data center power unless policies pivot aggressively toward sustainable energy sources.
This development raises a critical question: can the green transition keep pace with digital growth? As AI-driven services expand, energy policies must prioritize clean supply chains and energy-efficient technologies.
Despite rising project costs and interest rates, renewables and EVs are performing exceptionally well. BloombergNEF estimates that renewables will account for 67% of global electricity by 2050, up from 29% today. In contrast, fossil fuels’ share will shrink from 58% to just 25%.
Solar and wind will together generate two-thirds of the world’s electricity by 2050. On the transport front, EV sales are projected to soar—from 17.2 million in 2024 to 42 million by 2030. By 2050, two-thirds of all passenger vehicles will be electric, reducing oil demand for road transport by 40%.
This is particularly encouraging for Africa, where renewable energy paired with e-mobility presents an opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuel dependence while improving air quality and energy access.
While fossil fuels will continue to play a role in the short term, their decline is inevitable. Oil demand is projected to peak in 2032 at 104 million barrels per day before falling to 88 million by 2050. The aviation and petrochemical sectors will make up the bulk of ongoing consumption.
Coal use is already plummeting—set to decline by 25% by 2035, including a steep fall of 2% in 2025, mainly due to China’s aggressive coal phase-out. Gas demand will hold steady until around 2040, after which renewables are expected to push it downward.
The surge in clean energy installations in 2024 may have marked the start of a long-term emissions decline. However, challenges persist—from political backsliding to infrastructure delays and the energy needs of digital technologies.
Still, the global momentum is undeniable. With continued investments, stronger climate policies, and inclusive planning—especially for emerging economies like those in Africa—the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 is no longer aspirational. It is increasingly possible.
