Namibia’s push to diversify its hydrocarbon strategy beyond headline-grabbing offshore discoveries is gaining momentum, as new onshore drilling results and planned production tests in 2026 draw investor attention ahead of the Namibia International Energy Conference in Windhoek.
While deepwater finds in the Orange Basin have reshaped global perceptions of the country’s resource potential, operators and policymakers are now signalling that frontier onshore basins could form a complementary pillar of Namibia’s upstream development.
Over the past three years, offshore discoveries by TotalEnergies and Galp Energia have placed Namibia among the most closely watched exploration markets globally. Galp’s Mopane discovery and TotalEnergies’ Venus find in the Orange Basin are widely seen as commercially significant, with expectations that first offshore oil could flow before the end of the decade, subject to final investment decisions and development timelines.
Onshore acreage, long overshadowed by deepwater prospects, is beginning to attract renewed scrutiny. Compared with offshore developments that require multi-billion-dollar capital expenditure, specialised drilling vessels and long lead times, onshore exploration typically involves lower entry costs, simpler logistics and shorter appraisal cycles.
In a global investment climate shaped by capital discipline and energy transition pressures, these characteristics are increasingly relevant.
The most advanced onshore activity is centred on the Kavango Basin, where Canada-based ReconAfrica completed drilling at its Kavango West 1X well in December 2025 to a depth of about 4,200 metres. According to company disclosures, hydrocarbon shows were recorded across multiple intervals, indicating the presence of a working petroleum system. A production test planned for early 2026 is expected to determine whether these resources can flow at commercial rates.
If viable, the Kavango Basin could shift from high-risk frontier exploration to early-stage development planning. ReconAfrica holds a substantial acreage position extending into neighbouring Angola, creating scope for cross-border geological continuity and potential farm-in agreements. However, commerciality remains unproven, and further appraisal will be required before any reserve estimates or development scenarios can be confirmed.
Further west, exploration licence areas in the Owambo Basin are being assessed by joint ventures that include Monitor Exploration, 88 Energy and Legend Oil Namibia. Gravity and magnetic surveys have identified structural leads consistent with rift-related petroleum systems, although seismic acquisition and interpretation are ongoing. These early-stage programmes are aimed at narrowing exploration risk before drilling decisions are made.
For Namibia’s public finances, the stakes are significant. Offshore oil has the potential to transform government revenues, foreign exchange earnings and infrastructure investment over the medium term. Onshore projects, while smaller in scale, could provide earlier production opportunities with lower capital intensity, potentially diversifying the revenue base and spreading development benefits beyond coastal regions.
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According to the International Monetary Fund, resource-dependent economies face heightened exposure to commodity price volatility and governance risks. Namibia’s policymakers have emphasised the need for regulatory clarity and fiscal discipline to avoid the pitfalls experienced elsewhere on the continent. In this context, balancing offshore megaprojects with incremental onshore developments may offer a more diversified risk profile.
The onshore push also intersects with broader African energy dynamics. Across the continent, governments are seeking to attract upstream investment amid tightening global capital flows and growing environmental scrutiny. Shorter-cycle, lower-cost projects can be more resilient in periods of price uncertainty, while also aligning with domestic content and employment strategies. Namibia’s emerging basins could therefore test whether frontier African jurisdictions can combine exploration momentum with institutional preparedness.
The upcoming Namibia International Energy Conference, scheduled for 14–16 April 2026 under the theme “The Road to First Oil and Beyond,” is expected to provide a platform for operators, regulators and financiers to assess these developments. For onshore licence holders, the event offers an opportunity to advance farm-in discussions and secure technical partners, particularly if forthcoming production tests yield encouraging data.
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