As Africa prepares for COP 31 in Antalya, the continent must move beyond climate commitments to build a green economy that creates decent jobs, finances young entrepreneurs and retains economic value locally.
Picture a 24-year-old woman in an East African market town. She has completed a solar installation course and holds a certificate to prove it. Yet she has no toolkit, cannot secure a loan because she lacks collateral, and struggles to convince customers to trust an inexperienced technician. She has the skills to participate in the green economy, but the economic infrastructure to support her participation is missing. Her experience illustrates a fundamental contradiction in Africa’s climate transition: the continent is investing in a greener future, but the pathways connecting climate investment to employment, enterprise ownership and economic opportunity remain underdeveloped.
According to the Africa Youth Employment Outlook 2026 Report by the Mastercard Foundation, over 10 million young Africans enter the labor market each year, against only about 3 million formal jobs created annually. By 2030 the report projects that Sub-Saharan Africa will need to generate approximately 12-15 million jobs every year to keep pace with demographic growth. These figures expose a development challenge that climate policy cannot afford to overlook. Africa contributed approximately 3.9% of global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions in 2022, yet faces significant climate vulnerabilities and an urgent need to transform its productive sectors. The transition to a low-carbon economy must therefore do more than reduce emissions. It must expand economic opportunity, strengthen domestic industries and create productive employment for a rapidly growing population.
The concept of a just transition has traditionally focused on protecting workers and communities affected by the shift away from carbon-intensive industries, particularly coal mining and heavy manufacturing. In many African economies, however, the challenge is more complex. The transition must create productive and decent employment in economies where formal jobs have historically been limited and livelihoods depend heavily on climate-sensitive sectors.
Energy access illustrates this challenge. Data from the UN Energy, places Sub-Saharan Africa as accounting for approximately 563 million of the 655 million people worldwide without electricity, representing 86% of the global access gap. While decentralized renewable energy solutions are expanding, access alone does not guarantee economic transformation. A solar-powered household has improved access to electricity. A solar-powered irrigation system, cold-storage facility or agro-processing enterprise can go further by creating income-generating opportunities, strengthening agricultural value chains and supporting local businesses. The economic value of renewable energy lies not only in the electricity generated but also in the enterprises, services and employment opportunities it makes possible.
The renewable energy sector demonstrates both the opportunity and the gap. The Renewable energy and jobs: Annual review 2025 report estimated that renewable energy employed 16.6 million people globally in 2024, but only approximately 344,000 were in Africa. Although informal employment may be underrepresented in these estimates, the figures raise an important question: why is a continent with substantial renewable energy potential capturing such a small share of the associated employment opportunities?
The answer extends beyond skills shortages. It involves access to finance, domestic manufacturing capacity, market development, technology transfer and the ability of local enterprises to participate in emerging green value chains.
A jobs-centered transition requires a broader understanding of the green economy. Renewable energy is important, but it is not the only source of employment and enterprise development. Climate-smart agriculture offers opportunities in irrigation services, agricultural mechanization, input distribution, processing, storage and climate-resilient supply chains. For millions of young Africans living in rural areas, transforming agriculture into a more productive and commercially viable sector could be one of the most significant pathways into the green economy.
Nature-based solutions present another opportunity. Agroforestry, watershed restoration, sustainable forestry and ecosystem rehabilitation can generate demand for tree nurseries, restoration enterprises, ecological monitoring, sustainable commodity production and community-based environmental services. With appropriate financing and market arrangements, these activities can support both ecosystem recovery and local livelihoods.
The circular economy also deserves greater attention. Waste collection, recycling, repair, material recovery and sustainable manufacturing can create employment while reducing environmental pressures associated with conventional production and consumption. Similarly, green construction, electric mobility and energy-efficiency services offer opportunities for technical specialists, small businesses, equipment suppliers and maintenance enterprises.
However, the existence of these opportunities does not automatically translate into employment. A sector may attract significant climate investment while local enterprises remain excluded from procurement, technology supply and financing opportunities. The question is therefore not simply how many green projects Africa can attract. It is how effectively these investments can build domestic capabilities, develop local businesses and create sustainable employment.
The outcomes of COP30 in Belém provided an important foundation for advancing the just transition. Parties adopted a framework for just transition emphasizing international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity building and knowledge sharing. The conference also called for the tripling of adaptation finance by 2035 and recognized the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap towards mobilizing at least US$1.3 trillion annually in climate finance by 2035. These commitments matter, but their implementation will determine their value to African economies.
The Climate Policy Initiative estimates that climate finance flows to Africa increased by 48%, from US$29.5 billion in 2019/20 to US$43.7 billion in 2021/22. Private finance nearly doubled to US$8 billion but represented only 18% of total flows. The overall financing volume remained significantly below what the continent requires to achieve its climate objectives. This financing gap has direct implications for employment. Without capital reaching domestic businesses, cooperatives, smallholder enterprises and local service providers, the green economy risks becoming dominated by large projects with limited connections to local economic activity.
COP31 in Antalya, scheduled for 9–20 November 2026, presents an opportunity to address this implementation challenge. African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change have called for an implementation-focused COP that translates commitments on finance, technology and capacity building into tangible outcomes. Their position recognizes that a just transition must create value, industries, skills and jobs on the continent itself.
Africa has an opportunity to connect these two milestones through a measurable employment and enterprise agenda. Four priorities should guide this effort. Make employment a core measure of climate finance performance. Climate investments should be assessed not only by capital mobilized, emissions reduced and resilience achieved, but also by the number, quality and sustainability of jobs created, particularly for young people and women. Reporting should distinguish temporary from permanent employment and track support to domestic enterprises.
Expand financing for green enterprises. Address the financing gap facing young entrepreneurs through tailored green finance products, blended finance, guarantees, patient capital, equipment leasing and flexible repayment terms. Financing should reflect the cash flows, gestation periods and risks of green businesses.
Align skills development with market opportunities. Move beyond training and certification towards demand-driven green skills programmes linked to actual employment and enterprise opportunities. Connect training with practical experience, mentorship, start-up finance, productive assets and market access.
Industrialize the green transition and retain local value. Use the growth of renewable energy, electric mobility, climate-smart agriculture and nature-based solutions to strengthen domestic manufacturing, local enterprises and green value chains. Ensure communities and young entrepreneurs participate not only as workers but also as business owners and beneficiaries of economic value.
The responsibility is shared. Governments must create enabling policy environments and strengthen domestic industries. Development partners must align climate finance with local economic priorities. Financial institutions must develop appropriate lending models. Employers must participate in skills development, while young people must be recognized as entrepreneurs, innovators, employees and investors in the emerging green economy. The success of Africa’s just transition will depend on whether these actors can connect climate ambition to economic opportunity.
Return to the young woman in the East African market town. Imagine her a year later, equipped with the tools to install solar systems, financing that reflects her business cash flows and a growing customer base of households and enterprises. She is no longer simply a graduate of a training programme. She is a business owner, an employer and an active participant in the energy transition. Her story should not remain an exception.
Africa’s green transition must create millions of opportunities for young people to participate in, own and benefit from the emerging economy. That requires climate finance that reaches local enterprises, skills development that responds to market demand and industrial policies that retain more economic value on the continent. Antalya should be the moment Africa advances this ambition.
A just transition that does not create decent jobs and expand economic opportunity for Africans will remain incomplete. The real measure of success is not simply how green the continent becomes, but how many people are able to build better livelihoods and prosperous futures through that transition.
