Canada is positioning Africa as a key growth frontier for wheat exports as rising population, rapid urbanisation and changing dietary patterns drive long-term demand across the continent, a senior industry official has said, even as competition from Russia, Ukraine and other global suppliers intensifies in one of the world’s fastest-growing grain markets.
Speaking on May 22, Leif Carlson, vice president of markets and trade at Cereals Canada (Cereals Canada), said the continent already represents an important but underexploited destination for Canadian wheat exports, with scope for expansion as structural demand factors strengthen.
“We do see Africa as an opportunity. It’s one we’re already participating in, but I think there’s more to do,”he said in comments reported by Canada Cattleman.
The growing strategic attention reflects a wider shift in global grain trade flows, as Africa’s wheat consumption continues to outpace domestic production capacity. According to projections by the United Nations, Africa’s population is expected to rise from about 1.5 billion in 2025 to nearly 2.5 billion by 2050, a demographic trajectory that is expected to significantly increase demand for imported staple foods, particularly wheat-based products in urbanising economies.
Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Food and Agriculture Organization) show that Africa imported an average of 52.8 million tonnes of wheat annually between the 2021/2022 and 2023/2024 marketing seasons, making the continent the world’s second-largest wheat-importing region after Asia. This structural dependence on imports has deepened in recent years as climate variability, input costs and land constraints have limited productivity gains in domestic cereal production across several African economies.
For Canada, the opportunity remains significant but unevenly distributed. Trade data indicate that Canadian wheat exports to Africa reached about 5 million tonnes in 2025, the highest level in five years, but still representing a relatively small share of total African imports. Algeria accounts for roughly half of those volumes, followed by Morocco, Nigeria, Ghana and Mozambique, underscoring a concentration of trade flows in North and West Africa.
Despite this presence, Canada currently supplies about 11 percent of Africa’s wheat imports, leaving substantial room for market share expansion in a highly competitive environment. Cereals Canada has identified Kenya, Cameroon and Mozambique as priority growth markets, reflecting rising consumption patterns and import dependency in both coastal and inland trading hubs.
Kenya, which imports more than 2 million tonnes of wheat annually, is East Africa’s largest market, driven by sustained demand from urban food systems and milling industries. Cameroon imports over 1 million tonnes a year, positioning it as Central Africa’s leading wheat importer, while Mozambique, with annual imports exceeding 700,000 tonnes, serves as a key entry point for Southern African grain flows outside South Africa.
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However, Canada’s expansion strategy is unfolding in an increasingly contested global market. Russia has consolidated its position as the dominant wheat supplier to several African countries, leveraging competitive pricing and expanded logistics networks. At the fifth Russian Grain Forum held in Sochi from May 20 to May 23, Russian officials discussed plans with Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, to establish a regional grain trading and storage hub in Egyptian ports, a move widely seen as reinforcing Moscow’s strategic foothold in North African food supply chains.
Ukraine is also actively seeking to diversify its agricultural export destinations. In April, Kyiv opened its first agricultural hub in Ghana, positioning the country as a gateway into West Africa’s grain markets. The initiative is intended to facilitate both commercial and humanitarian flows, reflecting Ukraine’s broader effort to maintain export continuity amid ongoing disruptions to its traditional Black Sea shipping routes.
Alongside these emerging dynamics, established exporters such as France, Australia and the United States are also competing to maintain or expand their presence in African wheat markets. The result is a progressively fragmented and competitive import landscape in which price, logistics reliability and trade diplomacy are becoming as important as production volumes.
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For African economies, the intensifying competition among exporters presents both opportunities and vulnerabilities. On one hand, diversified supply sources can help stabilise prices and reduce dependency risks. On the other, persistent reliance on imported wheat continues to expose African countries to global price volatility and external supply shocks, reinforcing concerns about long-term food security and the need to expand domestic cereal production and regional value chains.
As Africa’s wheat demand trajectory accelerates alongside demographic and urban growth, the continent is increasingly becoming a central arena in global food trade realignments, with implications not only for agricultural exporters but also for fiscal stability, trade balances and food system resilience across African economies.
